Computation of Page Fault Probability from Program Transition Diagram
An algorithm is given for calculating page fault
probability in a virtual memory system operating 
under demand paging with various memory sizes and replacement
rules.  A first order Markov model of program 
behavior is assumed, and a representation of the system
based on memory states, control states, and memory 
substates is presented.  The algorithm is general in
the sense that the page fault probabilities can 
be calculated for nonpredictive replacement rules applied
to any program represented by a one-step Markov 
chain.  A detailed example is given to illustrate the
algorithm for Random and Least Recently Used (LRU) 
replacement rules.
CACM April, 1974
Franklin, M. A.
Gupta, R. K.
